California tobacco tax backers hope uncounted ballots turn tide

Backers of a tobacco tax initiative said Wednesday they were prepared to wait days, if not weeks, to see if uncounted ballots turn the tide in their favor. Proposition 29, which would hike the state's cigarette tax by $1 per pack, trailed by 63,176 votes after election officials counted 3.8 million ballots from Tuesday's election – a 50.8 percent to 49.2 percent margin. County officials are left to count hundreds of thousands of votes, most cast by last-minute voters who permanently use mail ballots. It was not immediately certain how many ballots remained, but nine of the state's most populous counties reported nearly 800,000 combined to count.

 Neither side was ready to declare the race over Wednesday, though initiative opponents felt confident that last-minute voters landed in their corner. They relied on a nearly $47 million war chest, mostly from the tobacco industry, to knock down support from a 67 percent high in March. After a night of little sleep, both sides called county election offices throughout California to assess how many mail ballots were left to count – and where. The locations may be most relevant to whether the sides consider the race over or wait for more ballots to be counted, since some big counties overwhelmingly swung one way or the other Tuesday. "We're very encouraged with a 63,000-vote lead, but there are obviously ballots still outstanding to be counted," said No on 29 spokeswoman Beth Miller. "We are waiting to get a better assessment of how many ballots are still outstanding and evaluate whether that will have an impact."

 Chris Lehman, campaign manager for the Yes on 29 side, acknowledged that proponents have an uphill battle if they are to still win the contest. "This campaign has been about a coalition of cancer survivors and their family members, and they're no stranger to long odds. They're going to vigilantly watch these returns come in and hope for the best." A Public Policy Institute of California poll showed that 67 percent of voters backed Proposition 29 in March when they were read the ballot language. But that number steadily declined through election day. The sides combined to spend nearly $60 million in the race, with the tobacco industry-fueled opposition raising nearly $47 million of that. Lehman said, "$47 million of distortions of the truth tend to have an impact on people."

 But opponents said the initiative was flawed, striking a chord with voters and some editorial boards who were concerned with how the tax dollars would be spent. Proposition 29 would raise $735 million annually to pay mostly for cancer research, as well as smoking cessation programs. Backers also highlighted the fact that higher cigarette taxes result in lower smoking rates. Opponents compared the spending plan to two previous voter-approved programs for stem-cell research and high-speed rail and questioned why the measure would not raise money for the state budget.